A government coup or ‘Maidan’ in Moscow or Minsk is not possible. To be more concrete, its victory is impossible, the way it happened in Kiev. There are a number of reasons for it.
1) A Maidan is not possible in cities where government opposition are the minority, Unlike Kiev, they are the minority in Moscow and Minsk.
2) For the pro-Maidan group to be successful, a country must have serious and autonomous political forces, as part of their parliament. Neither Moscow nor Minsk have such factions, unlike Kiev.
3) There are no autonomous groups of oligarchs that would be willing to financially support the protesters; people need to eat everyday, they need to feed their families.
4) A strong and authoritative support of the West is required, that would stand in the way of the government of the day attempting to calm the opposition. The West does not play the role of ‘big daddy’ neither for Putin nor Lukashenko, the way it did for Yanukovich.
5) There is no alternative leader with a high enough ranking that is able to replace the current President, in the event of a victorious Maidan. Navalny is in no serious competition with Putin, and an alternative for Lukashenko is entirely amiss.
6) Kiev’s experience showed that for a Maidan to be successful, there must be combat units ready to defend the cause. Such groups do not exist in Russia nor in Belarus. To the contrary, there are pro-government forces such as the Union of Donbass Volunteers which number over 10,000 personnel.
7) Psychological cause; there needs to be an uncertainty in oneself and in the country’s authorities, the way it was in Kiev. Unlike Yanukovich, Putin and Lukashenko more or less have the trust of the public.