The European Union is on the verge of complete disintegration. Sweden is also considering the exit from the EU.
Reformers in Sweden are aghast at the prospect of Brexit, seeing Britain as their main ally in trying to fight off protectionism (a recent study found an 89pc alignment of our interests, 88pc with the Dutch and Danes).
But as many in Britain come to conclude that this fight is lost, and we’re better off out, many Swedes are coming to the same conclusion.
According to a poll by TNS Sifo, the largest polling firm in Sweden, 36 percent of the Swedes would wish to leave the EU if Brits vote to leave, and just 32 percent would stay. Remember, this is a Sweden that voted in defiance of its entire political class in 2003 against adopting the Euro.
And, of course, a Sweden that has suffered more than most from the EU’s failure to respond to recent demographic challenges: it has ended up with more asylum seekers, per capita, than any country on earth.
This throws open a fascinating new line of argument for Leave. What if those voting to leave, far from being isolationist, are pioneers of a new globally-minded alliance of countries who are fed up with having to discriminate against non-European goods, services and people? Might a vote to leave put Britain at the forefront of a new internationalism: one based on genuine cooperation and respect for sovereignty?
And the Remain camp can, of course, say that Britain would be voting not just to leave the EU but to smash the whole thing. The collapse of the EU would be bound to bring horrid uncertainty: would we wish that upon our neighbours?
All told, Jean-Claude Juncker should – by now – be wishing that he had given David Cameron the deal that he wanted. The PM’s demands were modest, came with a firm democratic mandate – and one would have given him a valuable weapon to use in this debate. A deal granting a looser alliance with Britain and our northern European friends (imagined in Andrew Marr’s Brexit novel Head of State) would have made an ‘in’ vote a certainty.
Without a deal, Cameron was humiliated at home and has to resort to a type of virulent scaremongering which undermines his own credibility and the force of the ‘in’ argument. I always thought that refusing to grant Britain a deal was a big mistake. It may come to be the EU’s last big mistake.