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Society to collapse by 2020: Scientist predicts ‘peak turmoil’ in three years

A scientist believes that our world and society is one the verge of collapse. He believes that our society will collapse by 2020.

War on the streets could be the norm by 2020 as unrest among citizens leads to erupting violence.

Peter Turchin, a professor of ecology and mathematics at the University of Connecticut, has been studying history as if it were a science and, by analysing past societies, has concluded the current societal norms are nearing their end.

Prof Turchin has developed a subject known as “cliodynamics” which analyses history as a science, which includes predictions and models based on past experiences.

The Russian-American scientist has been building his model for years, but states the election of Donald Trump as President of the US will accelerate the negative trends, leading to a peak in turmoil in 2020.

He highlights the “elite overproduction” – where the rich get richer – as another exacerbating feature of the rising tensions and will lead to “ideological polarisation and fragmentation of the political class.”

Writing a piece for Phys.org, Mr Turchin said: “My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s.

“The presidential election which we have experienced, unfortunately, confirms this forecast.

“We seem to be well on track for the 2020s instability peak. And although the election is over, the deep structural forces that brought us the current political crisis have not gone away.

“If anything, the negative trends seem to be accelerating.”

Donald Trump’s proposed tax policies are another element that could bring on the inevitable collapse of society, Mr Turchin adds.

He writes: “Drastically reducing taxes on wealthy Americans will hardly strengthen the fiscal health of the state.”

Dismissing the idea that his prediction is sensationalist, he adds: “This is a science-based forecast, not a ‘prophecy’.”

However, the collapse of society can be avoided.

Mr Turchin concluded: “Our society, like all previous complex societies, is on a rollercoaster.

“Impersonal social forces bring us to the top; then comes the inevitable plunge. But the descent is not inevitable.

“Ours is the first society that can perceive how those forces operate, even if dimly. This means that we can avoid the worst – perhaps by switching to a less harrowing track, perhaps by redesigning the rollercoaster altogether.”


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