In a recent interview, Turkish president Erdogan stated that Putin will desert Assad.
The conflict between Sunni Muslim and Shiite Muslim is based on the Sunni claims that there is supposed to be one source of law – the Quran. Thus, anything that is not based on this religious Scripture leads to conflict.
They also believe that any other nation should conform to the laws of Quran. According to Sunni Islam, the government must base all its laws on what is written in Quran.
On the other hand, Shiia Islam is more tolerant and they do not base everything on the wishes of God. They are tolerant of other constitutions, like the constitution of the US and Russia, which are not based on religious Scripture but are made by people. Sunnis want Mecca to be the center of global empire, while for Shiias it is only a religious center.
In addition to all this, Russia supports Shiia Islam, while the US supports Sunni Islam, which further puts interests of both countries in another conflict.
President Erdogan did not provide more information to support his opinion that Assad will fall and that Syria’s government will be taken over and replaced by a Sunni Islamic state.
The message behind President Erdogan’s statement could be that Assad will have to find an exile in Iran or Russia in order to stay alive.
The US is close to Sunni Islam because of their sources of oil. Because Sunni are Russia’s major oil competitors, the US wants to use this into their advantage in order to overpower Russia.
There is a possibility for Iran to become Russia’s competitor as a supplier of gas into Europe. In case Russia really stops protecting Shiite, the Saudi-U.S. alliance could prevent Syria from becoming a major transport route for Russia’s gas.